Question for a hockey mind greater than mine...

[Bill Haverchuck]

I want to see if I can get some insight into how we can be out shooting the Aeros and still loose. The first meeting we out shoot them by 5 shots, they beat us by 5 goals. Last night we out shoot them by 10 shots and they still beat us (on a goal with :17 left in sudden death no less). Is it Gerber? Is it defense? Is it jaded guys wanting to be in Edmonton just going through the motions? Is it just simply shots not falling? Also IF you think Gerber's the problem, what happens if we kill that last :17 and go to a shootout, how does he do tending a shootout?

Really not trying to be a Negative Nancy here, just trying to get some insight from some of you that have been around hockey longer than I have.

[ScottInOKC]

I thought Gerber played extremely well last night. Both Houston goals were result of turnovers in the Barons defensive zone. IMHO, it looks like they just need to simplify their game and stop trying to make the perfect play. The 2nd period last night was a thing of beauty, they absolutely dominated the Aeros. Play like that for 3 periods and they'll win a lot of games.

[Laramie]

Can't claim to have a better hockey mind; however, let's not push the panic button.

Team chemistry and timing takes time to develop. The Barons are getting there a lot sooner than expected; so be patient and give the Barons credit for what they are doing.

The Barons are OK for now and their next game against Houston at the Toyota Center should produce a win!

[Mike Thompson]

It's not about shot quantity, it's about shot quality. The Barons seem content to let the opponents control the center of the ice, especially on the man-advantage. Gerber sees this and plays DEEP in his net. Those two combine for goals against. The Barons are the opposite when on offense. Lots of perimeter play and very few battles won along the boards and down low.

[Laramie]

Can't claim to have a better hockey mind; however, let's not push the panic button.

Team chemistry and timing takes time to develop. The Barons are getting there a lot sooner than expected; so be patient and give the Barons credit for what they are doing.

The Barons are OK for now and their next game against Houston at the Toyota Center should produce a win!

Oklahoma City Barons 8 Houston Aeros 2

[Bill Haverchuck]

It's not about shot quantity, it's about shot quality. The Barons seem content to let the opponents control the center of the ice, especially on the man-advantage. Gerber sees this and plays DEEP in his net. Those two combine for goals against. The Barons are the opposite when on offense. Lots of perimeter play and very few battles won along the boards and down low.


This is enlightening.

[The Reasoner]

I've only seen one Barons game so far so I can't say I have any special insight into the situation, but often if you track scoring chances rather than shots you will get a more accurate picture. Many shots are not scoring chances and many scoring chances do not result in shots.

For instance one team could fire a slapshot from a guy on the rush on the perimeter just hoping to get a whistle or a line change but with virtually no chance of scoring. He fires it into the goalie's chest and gets a whistle just like he was intending but there was never a scoring chance. This counts as a shot.

On the other hand a team could get a breakaway where the player hits the post. Here there is no shot recorded but clearly it was a great scoring chance and is indicative of perhaps bad defence by other team in giving up a breakaway.

Shots is a decent approximation of which team is creating more offence and it is the most commonly used because it is more objective than tracking scoring chances. With tracking chances there are always going to be certain borderline plays that one person might think is a good scoring chance and someone else would think not really. With shots there is less decision making as you can usually tell that something was a shot on goal.

When the teams themselves are analyzing a game I can tell you that they will always have their own tallies of chances given up and chances created. If you are creating more chances but still losing then you can attribute it to good goaltending or luck or something.

[Brett]

^^^ Couldn't have said it better myself. Excellent response. SOG is a nice stat but it's really all about scoring chances.